Rolling coverage of all the day’s political developments as they happen
10.33am GMT
No, we didn’t cancel today’s blog because all the interesting politics is happening in the US, although it is, and you can read about it here. I’m late starting because I got held up this morning for various reasons. Sorry.
Related: US election 2016: voters head to polls as Trump and Clinton aim to make history – live
Related: £25bn hole will limit Philip Hammond’s options in autumn statement, says IFS
Another reason for the chancellor to wait before implementing any further fiscal tightening is that there is even more economic uncertainty than usual. But building a plan for further austerity in the next parliament would be prudent. Indeed even if a balanced headline budget was delivered in 2020–21 and then maintained thereafter public sector net debt would not be on course to reach its pre-crisis level of 40% of national income until around the mid-2040s. Unfortunately if anything the £25 billion estimated deterioration in the public finances in 2019–20 is likely to understate the increase in the longer-term challenge that has occurred since the March Budget. The OBR’s previous long-run projections were based on an optimistic assumption about NHS productivity growth which they have recently said is likely to be revised down in their future projections. More fundamentally any reduction in future immigration, any reduction in longer-term growth or any increase in future interest rates would make the fiscal arithmetic harder still.
Politics blog | The Guardian http://ift.tt/2fchc4z
Sig Nordal 